Peak Oil Preparation

From Drmills

Editor:

Michael E. Mills, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Psychology Department, Loyola Marymount University

Associate Editors:

Dan Bednarz, Ph.D. Energy and Healthcare Consultants
Gerald, Cecil, Ph.D., Professor of Physics & Astronomy, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill
Hiram Caton, Ph.D., former Professor of Politics and History at Griffith University in Queensland and an Associate of the US National Centre for Science Education.
Chris Martenson, Ph.D. Author of The Crash Course
Kathy McMahon, Psy.D., Psychologist and editor of PeakOilBlues.com
Guy R. McPherson, Ph.D., Professor, School of Natural Resources and Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona
Zachary Nowack, Author of Crash Course: Preparing for Peak Oil
Clifford Wirth, Ph.D., Peak Oil Associates International
Don Dwiggins, software engineer, student of the emerging crises

Wiki Development Stage: Initial Launch

We are currently soliciting qualified individuals to serve on the editorial board. Please contact the Editor if you are interested.

Contributors:

If you would like to contribute to this wiki, please add your name here. See instructions for contributors, below.

Ronald Frederick Greek, J.D.

Karen Arms, D. Phil., J.D.

Tom Michael, BSc, PGCert - PhD writing up :)

Overview

The purpose of this wiki is to examine the ramifications of several possible post peak oil scenarios, as well collect and synthesize information relevant to peak oil preparation for both individuals and groups/organizations. Much of this information has been scattered in different places, including peak oil related email groups, websites and books. A wiki allows for massive collaboration and ease of adding new materials to keep the information updated.

This wiki was created very recently, so the outline below is mostly an empty skeleton of topics. Please help and "give back to the web" by contributing. This will be a growing resource where you can archive relevant information you have collected. And, as more people contribute, it will become a more valuable resource over time.

Note re text colors:

Green text is new source material, in rough form with a link(s) to sources, that has yet to be edited.
Blue text is new, original material in wikipedia-type (encyclopedic) style that has yet to be edited or approved by editors.
Black text has been edited and approved.

Domain name: PeakOilPreparation.com

Direct link to this page: http://drmills.wiki-site.com/index.php?title=Peak_Oil_Preparation

1 What is "Peak Oil?" And why do I need to prepare for it?
- 1.1 Possible post peak oil scenarios
- 1.2 Risk management strategies
2 How to contribute to this wiki
- 2.1 Instructions for contributors
3 POSSIBLE CHANGES LIKELY AFTER PEAK OIL
4 PERSONAL PEAK OIL PREPARATION (Topics in alphabetical order)
5 LOCAL / COMMUNITY / REGIONAL PEAK OIL PREPARATION
- 5.1 Overview
- 5.2 Relocalization
6 BUSINESSES AND ORGANIZATIONS - PEAK OIL PREPARATION
7 NATIONAL PEAK OIL PREPARATION
8 INTERNATIONAL / WORLD PEAK OIL PREPARATION
- 8.1 Overview
- 8.2 The Oil Depletion Protocol

What is "Peak Oil?" And why do I need to prepare for it?

What is commonly referred to as "peak oil" is the point at which world old production reaches a maximum, and then goes into an irreversable, terminal decline. After peak oil, the price of oil based energy and products will become ever more expensive. It appears that we are at, or very near, world peak oil production now.

(Source: GraphOilogy February 27, 2006)

Below, the countries in red are already past their oil production peak; those in green have yet to pass peak (but most will in the next 5 or 10 years).

(Source: http://www.davidstrahan.com/map.html )

In the U.S., as domestic oil production further declines, oil imports will make up an increasing percentage of oil usage.

Renewable energy sources cannot make up for this energy shortfall.

What many people do not yet realize is that, as of now, there is no renewable energy source, nor combination of sources, that can scale up quickly enough, or that would provide anywhere near to the energy equivalent of oil. There appears to be no way to avoid a severe, worldwide energy shortage in the near future.

The graph below of projected world energy use by source suggests that renewable energy is likely to make only a small contribution.

(Source: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3091 )

Some brief overviews of peak oil on the web:

Peak Oil slideshow. The Crash Course, by Chris Martenson, Ph.D.
Evolutionary psychology and peak oil: A Malthusian inspired "heads up" for humanity, by Michael Mills, Ph.D., Psychology Department, Loyola Marymount Univeristy
Life After the Oil Crash website, by Matt Savinar, J.D., LifeAfterTheOilCrash.net
What is Peak Oil, by Clifford Wirth, Ph.D., Peak Oil Associates International
Peak Oil and the Fate of Humanity, by Borbert Beriault
Peak Oil Overview, by Gail Tverberg
Peak Oil Page, on Wikipedia
Peak Oil Primer and Links, by the Energy Bulletin
OilDecline.com Peak Oil Info & Strategies
Peak Oil Media Guide, by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, USA (ASPO-USA)

Why do I (and "we") need to prepare for "Peak Oil?"

...because after peak oil, the "new normal" won't be the same as the "old normal." Peak oil is a game-changing paradigm shift that will affect us all. The negative consequences could be very severe. In the next five years or so, scientists might make a breaththrough new energy source discovery that can scale up in time to save us from an economic meltdown. But, frankly, a breakthrough cure, if it does come, will likely not come in time to avoid a worldwide energy transition crisis.

Possible post peak oil scenarios

For a brief overview of possible post peak oil scenarios, see: http://oilscenarios.info

1. Scientific energy breakthrough / "technofix"

2. Long oil production plateau and increasing reliance of renewable energy

3. Gradual economic decline

See: The tempo of change, by John Michael Greer http://www.energybulletin.net/node/46318

4. Fast economic crash

5. Collapse of civilization

Mainstream economist and financial adviser Barton Biggs is a proponent of preparedness. In his 2008 book Wealth, War and Wisdom, Biggs has a gloomy outlook for the economic future, and suggests that investors take survivalist measures. In the book, Biggs recommends that his readers should “assume the possibility of a breakdown of the civilized infrastructure.” he goes so far as to recommend setting up survival retreats: “Your safe haven must be self-sufficient and capable of growing some kind of food,” Mr. Biggs writes. “It should be well-stocked with seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc. Think Swiss Family Robinson. Even in America and Europe there could be moments of riot and rebellion when law and order temporarily completely breaks down.” (from the Wikipedia survivalism page)

External Links

Societal Collapse page at Wikipedia.org

Peakniks, Doomers, and Collapse Blog post

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Why predicting the future is very difficult

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Risk management strategies

Excerpt from: The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production, by Robert L. Hirsch http://www.acus.org/docs/051007-:Hirsch_World_Oil_Production.pdf

It is possible that peaking may not occur for a decade or more, but it is also possible that peaking may be occurring right now. We will not know for certain until after the fact. The world is thus faced with a daunting risk management problem. On the one hand, if peaking is decades away, massive mitigation initiated soon would be premature. On the other hand, if peaking is imminent, failure to quickly initiate mitigation will impose large nearterm economic and social costs on the world.

The two risks are asymmetric:

Mitigation initiated prematurely would result in a relatively modest misallocation of resources.

Failure to initiate timely mitigation with an appropriate lead-time is certain to result in very severe economic consequences.

The world has never confronted a problem like this. Risk minimization requires the implementation of mitigation measures well prior to peaking. Since it is uncertain when peaking will occur, the challenge for decisionmakers is indeed vexing. Mustering support for an invisible disaster is much more difficult than for one that is obvious to all.

Memills 16:32, 2 August 2008 (EDT)

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How to contribute to this wiki

Instructions for contributors

Anyone can contribute to this wiki (a wiki is a website that can be edited by many different people). It works like Wikipedia.org.

However, unlike Wikipedia:

This wiki goes into far more detail than would a typical encyclopedia topic page.
We use a visual WYSIWYG editor, so editing is much easier than it is at Wikipedia.
Contributors and editors use their real names (or first initials and last name), rather than pseudonyms (to help reduce spamming, edit wars, and "trolls").
Final editorial decisions are made by the website Editor and Associate Editors.

If you wish to contribute, you may wish to print the instructions below (or have them available in a second browser window), so you can refer them as you sign up and make contributions.

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How to sign up as a contributor

To become a contributor, click "create an account" in the upper right hand corner.

For your username, enter either your full real name, or the first two initials of your name followed by your last name. To avoid spamming and "trolls," this site does not use user nicknames or pseudonyms, nor does it allow anonymous postings. Remember your login name and password (the editors don't have access to them).

Instructions to add your name to the list of contributors, above:

First log in using your username / password. Then, go to the to of the page. Click "edit" at the top of the page. Add your name to the list of contributors, and surround it by two left brackets on the left, and two right brackets on the right. For example, John Smith would enter [ [John Smith] ], but without a the blank spaces between the brackets.

Then, scroll down using the scroll bar (use the outer scroll bar if it is a long page), and click "Save Page."

Your name will now be listed as a Contributor and appears in red text.

Click on your name. This will take your to your own profile page, where, if you wish, you may enter any information you would like to share about yourself. Click the "Save Page" button when you are finished.

If you wish, you can maintain an archive (or "portfolio") of your own original contributions on your profile page. Copy and paste your wiki contributions to your personal profile page as you add material. This will keep an archive of your original work so you can refer to your original version if it gets heavily edited by others in the main wiki.

Once you have added information to personal profile page, your name will now show up as a blue link under "Contributors" on the main page.

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How to use editing tools

How to edit using the visual WYSIWYG editor

Editing here is easy. Once you have logged in, edit as you would using any editor, using the buttons on the editing bar. To save your work, scroll down to the bottom of the outer window, and click "Save Page."

Suggestion: always edit by clicking on the section edit link that appears in blue text on the right side of the page once you have logged in. Please do not use the Edit tab at the top of the page. It is much easier and faster to edit a smaller section than the whole page, and there are less likely to be conflicts when two contributors are editing at the same time.

The WYSIWYG editor is very easy to use, however, it still has a few bugs. If you find that it has really made a mess of things, click on the "history" tab (at the top of the page), and then click "undo." If you have recurrent problems editing with the WYSIWYG editor, edit using the Wikitext markup instead (see next section).

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Advanced editing: Editing using the underlying wikitext code for greater functionality

Then, click on the "Wikitext" button in the upper left. This will bring up the underlying wikitext code that you can edit directly.

Here are some resources to get you started to learn wikitext formatting codes:

Slide Show: http://www.slideshare.net/doctorwiki/askdrwikicom-wikitext-tutoral/
Editing: [1]
Tutorial:[2]
Cheat Sheet: [3]
General tools: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Tools

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Advanced editing: Using Word2MediaWikiPlus to convert Word documents to Wikitext

If you prefer to edit in Word, and then move your work here, you maybe interested in using the Word2MediaWikiPlus Word macro. This is a good option, too, if you have Word files that you would like to integrate here. Word2MediaWikiPlus is a Word macro that you can install in Word. It will place a new button on your Word Toolbar. When you click the button, it will covert the current open Word document into Wikitext. You can then copy and paste the Wikitext here. This will allow you to work in Word, and, when you transfer your work to our Wiki, you will not lose your document formatting (bold, italics, etc.). If you would like to try this, follow the instructions in the link below:

Word2MediaWikiPlus instructions

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Instructions and information for contributors

Feel free to add material here, even if it is not polished prose. Contributions are likely to be edited, reorganized and refined over time. Contributions could include (1) source materials and links (in a box in green text) , (2) first original drafts of a block of text (in blue text), and (3) questions and items for discussion to be edited and integrated later (in green text). Edited and approved material is in black text.

First, to edit here you must set your web browser to accept cookies (just from this site, if you wish).
On Internet Explorer, you can set these by click on "Tools", "Options", "Privacy" -- and set "accept cookies" Click ok. Click on "Tools","Options", "Content" -- and uncheck "Block Pop windows" click ok.

1. Source material intended to be re-written, summarized and integrated later. If you find source material that would be relevant posted on an email group, website or online forum, copy and paste a brief portion of it here, and, include a link to the source. It is expected that this source material will be edited later into original prose that summarizes the concepts in the post. To avoid copyright issues, it is probably a good idea to copy only a small portion of a post (or, ask the poster/owner for permission to copy).

This new source material should be highlighted green text inside of a box.

For example, suppose that you thought that the following excerpt from an article by Robert Hirsch was relevant to the section on risk management. You would add the excerpt in a box under that topic, and highlight it in green text. Be sture to include the source article title, author, and web link at the end.

First, to add the text box:

Click on the Insert Table icon (top row of editing icons, just to the left of the yellow icon).
A "Table Properties" window will appear.
For both "Rows:" and "Columns:" enter: 1
For Width, enter: 600
Then click "Ok"
A box will appear.
Go to the source material you wish to copy, and copy it to the clipboard.
Then, put the cursor inside the box, and click your mouse.
The cursor should be blinking inside the box.
Paste the material from the clipboard into the box.
Make sure the reference and liink to the source material is at the top
Sign your contribution by putting 4 "tilde" characters, ~ , at the bottom of the box ~ ~ ~ ~ (but without the spaces in between the ~ ). Your username and the date will appear there after you save the page.
Remember to click "Save Page"

Once the material is inside the box, highlight everything in the box and change the text color to green.

Here is an example source material text box:

Excerpt from: The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production, by Robert L. Hirsch http://www.acus.org/docs/051007-:Hirsch_World_Oil_Production.pdf

The two risks are asymmetric:

Mitigation initiated prematurely would result in a relatively modest misallocation of resources.

- Failure to initiate timely mitigation with an appropriate lead-time is certain to result in very severe economic consequences.

Memills 16:32, 2 August 2008 (EDT)

A box with green text will alert other contributors to the information and to further investigate the publication. Contributors and editors can then work collaboratively on the section to do further research on the topic, and distill, integrate, summarize and reference the information. Eventually, most of these excerpt boxes will be removed as the information is integrated into the wiki prose.

2. Initial drafts in Wikipedia-like prose. This is condensed, polished prose that is clear, relevant, accurate, referenced, and "non-POV" (Point of View). This is the target goal for material here. Feel free to include relevant graphics, active links to web resources, and references.

When you add a block of new, first-draft material, please add for "tilde" characters at the end your contribution: ~ ~ ~ ~ (but without spaces between each tilde). This will add your user name and the date. This is an example of how it will look: Memills 14:59, 30 July 2008 (EDT)

Also, please highlight the text you have added in blue. Blue text denotes new, original material that has been recently added (within the past month or so). This will make it easy for regular readers to see what has been added since their last visit. After a month or so, the editors will review and approve the new material. Once approved, they will change the text color to black and remove the username and date.

Contributors are encouraged to edit existing prose for clarity. However, please do not delete sections of text outright. If you feel a section of text should be deleted, please contact one of the editors, start a discussion on the Discussion page (tab above), or leave brief note in the wiki itself.

3. Conversations and questions. If you wish to ask a question, or start a discussion, under a certain subtopic feel free to do so. Again, over time, this material will be edited and integrated. Also please highlight this material in green text. Again, after it is edited, the text color will be changed to black.

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Three levels for each sub-section: Basic, Intermediate, and Advanced preparations

Each subsection should be broken down into separate sections for level of preparations: basic. intermediate, and advanced. Please place your contributions in the section you believe is most appropriate. If these subsection do not yet exist for a particular topic, please create them.

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Some sources for further information about peak oil preparation for contributors to integrate here

Websites:

PostPeakLiving.com -- excellent website. Has subpages broken down by category
Prepare page at LifeAfterTheOilCrash.com
www.preparingforpeakoil.com Downloadable book: Crash Course: Preparing for Peak Oil, by Zachary Nowack
http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/ Blog by Clifford Wirth
Book: Dare to prepare
Peak Oil Info & Strategies --> with link to book
BeyondPeak.com website and online book Peak Oil Prep: Prepare for Peak Oil, Climate Change and Economic Collapse by Mick Winter
100 Things You Can Do to Get Ready for Peak Oil by Sharon Astyk
LifeAfterTheOilCrash.net forum thread on preparation links and info
PeakOil.com threads on peak oil preparation
SelfSuffientish.com The urban guide to almost self sufficiency (Urban Homesteading)
Personal Survival Skills by students at the University of AZ
Portland Peak Oil
Meetup.com Find a Peak Oil Meetup Group near you
Relocalize.net - The Relocalization Network
www.peakoilstories.com Peak Oil headlines and survival strategies by Neil Nolan.

Online forums:

Email groups:

Books:

Peak Oil Prep: Prepare for Peak Oil, Climate Change and Economic Collapse by Mick Winter
Peak Oil Survival: Preparation for Life After Gridcrash, by Aric McBay
www.preparingforpeakoil.com Downloadable book.
Just in Case: How to Be Self-Sufficient When the Unexpected Happens, by Kathy Harrison
Dare to Prepare
Small is Possible: Life in a Local Economy by Lyle Estill
Plan C: Community Survival Strategies for Peak Oil and Climate Change by Pat Murphy
Profit from the Peak: The End of Oil and the Greatest Investment Event of the Century by Brian Hicks and Chris Nelder
Investing in Renewable Energy: Making Money on Green Chip Stocks by Jeff Siegel and Chris Nelder

Magazines:

Backwoods Home magazine
Countryside magazine
Permaculture magazine

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POSSIBLE CHANGES LIKELY AFTER PEAK OIL

Transportation

Less use of air transportation

More use of trains

More use of ships

The economy

Retreat from globalization -- re-localization

Higher cost of food

Resource conflicts and wars

Changes in family relationships

Recycling

Changes in education

Changes in employment and careers

PERSONAL PEAK OIL PREPARATION (Topics in alphabetical order)

ADJUSTING AND ADAPTING TO THE "NEW NORMAL"

Basic Preparation

Making biodiesel

Basic Preparation

Intermediate Preparation

Advanced Preparation

Links to Vendors

Links to External Websites

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FINANCIAL

Overview

Peak Oil is a multifaceted phenomena. It is primarily a resource extraction fact based on geology. However, this finds its most immediate measure in economics.

Oil and energy in general is a strategic resource and has had significant effects throughout recent world history. Countries will definitely go to war to obtain oil or access to oil. Since oil underpins many manufactured items like pharmaceticals, fertilizers, and plastics as well as the distribution of everything from food to airplane-loads of people, interupting the supply of oil can seriously damage economies. Good examples of such events happened in the Oil Embargos for the US during the 1970's. Not only are economies dependent upon oil, but the military might of countries also need oil to function. The steady supply of oil is of strategic interest for all people.

The problem with peak oil is not that the oil runs out; it is that the oil becomes too expensive. The true effects are economic in nature. With supply remaining the same or declining, the rapidily industrializing countries of the world growing and consuming more, there is a rapid rise in price. Demand goes up while supply goes down. The resulting price increases rapidly. Even though oil didn't run out, it become too expensive to be used as it has been.

As the price rapidly increases, things that rely on vast quantities of energy become undoable or price increases make them unaffordable. Food is brought to market using large amounts of oil and will go up in price. The problem is that this is a very inelastic demand. As the price goes up, people must simply spend more until they have no more money. Areas become unliveable. Southern California is very arid and can only support the vast population by pumping enormous quantities of water from far away. As fuel for those pumps becomes even more expensive, there will be a point where it can not be done any more. A mass exodus of people would have to flee the suddenly desertlike Southern Calfornia.

These things will be brought on by the economics of peak oil.

Basic Preparation

Intermediate Preparation

Advanced Preparation

Links to Vendors

Links to External Websites

Employment

Basic Preparation

Intermediate Preparation

Advanced Preparation

Links to Vendors

Links to External Websites

Basic Preparation

Intermediate Preparation

Advanced Preparation

Links to Vendors

Sun Ovens International

Solar Oven Society

Links to External Websites

Food storage

Basic Preparation

Intermediate Preparation

Advanced Preparation

Links to Vendors

Links to External Websites

Food Dehydration

Basic Preparation

Intermediate Preparation

Advanced Preparation

Links to Vendors

Links to External Websites

Food Canning

Basic Preparation

Intermediate Preparation

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HOUSING

Overview

Basic Preparation

Links to External Websites

Family or group multiple-unit "compounds"

Links to Vendors

Links to External Websites

Cohousing communities

Links to Vendors

Links to External Websites

Eco-villages

Links to Vendors

Links to External Websites

Emergency "Bugging Out" Preparations and Locations

Links to Vendors

Links to External Websites

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ISSUES RELATED TO SPECIFIC GROUPS

Women's issues

Men's issues

Racial issues

Sexual identity and orientation issues

Immigrant Issues

Infants and toddlers

Adolescents

Young adults

Middle age

Retirement issues

The frail elderly

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POLITICAL and LEADERSHIP ISSUES

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PSYCHOLOGICAL, SOCIAL and COMMUNITY ISSUES

Overview

Individual psychological issues

Relationship with romantic partner

Family

Friends

Neighbors and neighborhood issues

Community issues

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RECREATION

Recreation re-localization

Overview

Basic Preparation

Intermediate Preparation

Advanced Preparation

Links to Vendors

Links to External Websites

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TRASH AND RUBBISH DISPOSAL

Overview

Basic Preparation

Intermediate Preparation

Basic Preparation

Intermediate Preparation

Basic Preparation

Intermediate Preparation

Advanced Preparation

Links to Vendors

Links to External Websites

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LOCAL / COMMUNITY / REGIONAL PEAK OIL PREPARATION

Overview

Relocalization

Basic Preparation

Intermediate Preparation

Advanced Preparation

Links to Vendors

Links to External Websites

Transition Towns

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BUSINESSES AND ORGANIZATIONS - PEAK OIL PREPARATION

Overview

Individual Proprietors

Small Business

Medium / Large Businesses

Schools

Colleges / Universities

Hospitals and Health Care Organizations

Links to External Websites

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NATIONAL PEAK OIL PREPARATION

Overview

Tax incentives for renewable energy

Carbon taxes

Carbon trading

Government investments in basic renewable energy research

Links to External Websites

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INTERNATIONAL / WORLD PEAK OIL PREPARATION

Overview

Links to External Websites

The Oil Depletion Protocol

Links to External Websites

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Retrieved from "http://drmills.wiki-site.com/index.php/Peak_Oil_Preparation"

Peak Oil Preparation

From Drmills

Contents

What is "Peak Oil?" And why do I need to prepare for it?

Possible post peak oil scenarios

1. Scientific energy breakthrough / "technofix"

2. Long oil production plateau and increasing reliance of renewable energy

3. Gradual economic decline

4. Fast economic crash

5. Collapse of civilization

Why predicting the future is very difficult

Risk management strategies

How to contribute to this wiki

Instructions for contributors

How to sign up as a contributor

How to use editing tools

How to edit using the visual WYSIWYG editor

Advanced editing: Editing using the underlying wikitext code for greater functionality

Advanced editing: Using Word2MediaWikiPlus to convert Word documents to Wikitext

Instructions and information for contributors

Three levels for each sub-section: Basic, Intermediate, and Advanced preparations

Some sources for further information about peak oil preparation for contributors to integrate here

POSSIBLE CHANGES LIKELY AFTER PEAK OIL

Transportation

Less use of air transportation

More use of trains

More use of ships

The economy

Retreat from globalization -- re-localization

Higher cost of food

Resource conflicts and wars

Changes in family relationships

Recycling

Changes in education

Changes in employment and careers

PERSONAL PEAK OIL PREPARATION (Topics in alphabetical order)

ADJUSTING AND ADAPTING TO THE "NEW NORMAL"

COMMUNICATIONS

Overview

Phone, voice and text-messaging

Internet

CB Radio

Short-wave Radio

EDUCATION

Overview

Recommended self-sufficiency books

ENERGY and ENERGY PRODUCTION

Overview

Electrical Generation

Solar PV

Gasoline generators

Windmills

Watermills

Lighting

Liquid Fuels

Making biodiesel

FINANCIAL

Overview

Employment

Careers Post-Peak

Banking

Investing

FOOD

Overview

Growing food / gardening

Food preparation / cooking

Food storage

Food Dehydration

Food Canning

HEALTH and MEDICAL

Overview

Prescription drugs

First Aid Supplies

HOUSING

Overview

Making decisions about relocating

Possible relocation areas

Heating

Cooling

Fire fighting and prevention